(Community Matters) 538: Democratic chances of retaining control of the House are essentially unchanged in today’s FiveThirtyEight forecast. They have a 21 percent chance of doing so, up from 20 percent on Friday; that means Republicans have a 79 percent chance of instead claiming control. The average projection returned a result of 205 Democrats in the House and 230 Republicans, which would reflect a gain of 51 seats for the G.O.P.; this figure is unchanged. Forecast: Ds 205, Rs 230
Oct 23: (Community Matters) bummed to see this am that the House predictions have slipped by 2 and 1 seats in the 538 and RCP forecasts. And, yet, I remain optimistic that the modeling relying on likely voters is undercounting the showing of Obama first time voters.
10/21: (Community Matters) Nate’s updated 538 forecast to D’s: 206.6 Rs 228.4, and though he gives 3 out of 4 odds of Rs taking the House, he acknowledges that the volatility in these races is very high.
AP is reporting that early voting is breaking toward Ds. I had DNC Chairman Tim Kaine & OFA Texas Statewide Director Luke Hayes on the Talk on Tuesday radio show – both are optimistic. Luke believes the fact that we’re contacting and mobilizing 2008 first time voters (not included in likely voters in current polls) will result in a favorable break our way.
RCP forecasting 179/214/42 toss ups
(Community Matters) Participated in a conference call this afternoon about cholera outbreak in Haiti. The outbreak has occurred in the area immediately north of Port au Prince, the Lower Artibonite region of Hait.
To date, Partners in Health is reporting 250 confirmed dead and 3,114 hospitalized due to infection. Again, this is not in Port au Prince, it’s in the Lower Artibonite. PiH reports only knowing of 5 confirmed cases of cholera in Port au Prince – though in the densely populated capital, where 1.2mm to 1.5mm are living in tents and other temporary shelter, an epidemic of cholera is a real threat. They don’t consider a Port au Prince epidemic inevitable; they do consider more cases so, however.
(Community Matters) It’s mind boggling that we’re unable to stop the obvious collusion and exploitation of this cycle’s congressional races by supposedly independent groups. People are convicted and sent to prison with less circumstantial evidence. here
AG Holder, do your damn job. Investigate and prosecute!
Happy Birthday, Steven
(the love of my life, my very best friend)
(Community Matters) Much fun celebrating Luke Hayes’s birthday last night over dinner with several of his friends, including Emmy Ruiz, Amy Everhart, Ian Davis, Michael Wilt, Hector Nieto,Jamie Everhart, Bryn Carlson, Bhu Muhler, Karen Gross and Michael Mitchell.
Sorry Steven was away on business. He would have enjoyed the evening of story telling, political updates and friendly fire/banter among the closest family Luke’s built in Austin.