(Community Matters) Nate Silver says it’s not whether Pres Obama got a bounce out of the convention but how big a bounce. He also notes he considers Pres Clinton’s speech a pivotal moment. Former Romney and Pres. GW Bush advisor says Clinton’s speech “will be the moment that probably reelected Barack Obama.”
If you do the math, it implies that Mr. Obama must have been leading Mr. Romney by 10 or 11 points in the minority of the poll conducted since Mr. Clinton’s speech for him to have gained three points in the survey over all.
Again, this is just the upside case for Mr. Obama — not the reality yet. But the fact that it seems plausible is a bit surprising to me. Very little has moved the polls much all this year — including Mr. Romney’s convention and his choice of Paul D. Ryan as his running mate, events that typically produce bounces. But Mr. Obama has already made clear gains in the polls in surveys that only partially reflect his convention.
Polls conducted after the incumbent party’s convention typically inflate the standing of the incumbent by a couple of points, but not usually by more than that. Otherwise, they have predicted the eventual election outcome reasonably well. . . . Certainly, Mr. Romney will win his fair share of independent voters because of the economy — and if there are substantive signs of economic decline in October and November, probably enough to win him the election.
note Nate’s forecast by battleground state – that’s all that really matters – the popular vote not as much. Right now, Florida, Virginia, Nevada & Ohio in Pres Obama’s column. Follow the polling in those and the other battleground races.
from Playbook: “Three officials intimately involved in the [Romney] GOP campaign said Ohio leans clearly in Obama’s favor now … ‘Our problems are Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire,’ a top [Romney] official said. ‘Our opportunities are Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado. We can’t trade our problems for our opportunities and win the presidency. If we trade our problems for our opportunities, we lose.’ …