Daily Archives: 08/18/2008

(Community Matters) Be still my heart . . .

there’s even a video of it here

(Community Matters) Of course many have been seeing the disturbing trend in the national polls. It’s been noted in 538 but hadn’t significantly impacted the state by state electoral numbers until mid last week. While Obama retains a lead in electoral percentages, 538 considers it now only a “slight” lead. (admittedly, I’m a bit confused by this since I’m reading their numbers to show 284 to 254 electoral vote split favoring Obama but suppose given simulations this could be slight)

Nate Silver now writing about the latest Ohio poll showing Obama tied with McCain, down from an 8pt lead in Public Policy Polling’s July numbers. McCain slightly ahead in Nate’s simulations, winning Ohio’s electoral votes.

Two most interesting citations: 1) in the Ohio poll, Obama is doing well with independents, it’s Democrats with whom he’s slipping and 2) naming Hillary Clinton as his running mate would likely give him a 10 – 15 point bump. Nevertheless, I don’t think it’s worth the dilution of his message for change nor the risk Bill brings to an Obama presidency.