Daily Archives: 10/03/2008

(Community Matters) my comment on another blog

I like seeing this through others’ eyes and appreciate the enthusiasm and optimism on both sides

Personally, I think Biden won (the polls think by a substantial margin, I wouldn’t have said by such, however), though don’t consider it a game changer. And, we don’t want a game changer. We like exactly where things are today and our momentum.

Contrary to Mr Abear’s perspective, the momentum hasn’t swung both ways; it’s been consistent since Obama’s 2006 Austin visit. Yes of course, there was a GOP convention bounce – that’s a well-documented, recurring phenomenon. The lasting effect of the convention and Sarah Palin nomination is the bump to McCain/Sarah Palin ticket enthusiasm to 60% from 41%’; it’s still 20pts lower than Obama’s ticket.

Since 2006, every single week more and more Americans decide to vote for Barack Obama.

If we count by national polls, it’s a 6pt advantage. Counted state by state & electoral votes, it’s a 12pt advantage. Absolutely, the margin is going to narrow. We’re about to see the most negative, take-no-prisoners GOP & 527 media campaigns in the history of USA politics. We’re ready for it. We have the most significant field operations every launched in USA history and will get out more new voters than ever before.

(Community Matters) Debate: Biden scored more points overall so he wins, though not any big margin. No game changer. That’s a win for Obama. Momentum and metrics on our side.

9:32 Closing arguments: the are very different and appeal to different people. yawn.

9:28 Wow, not nearly as interesting the last four minutes. yawn

9:24 “He has not been a maverick . . . on healthcare . . . on education . . . on war . . . on virtually on anything that people talk about around the kitchen table.”

9:18 She is of the people. Whether some think high level or lower denominator, that’s an individual perspective. Biden just nailed it connecting with Americans, connecting as a father, connecting as a middle American. Game change!

9:14 On being vice president. Other than “tapping.” Pretty much a draw. Well, I take it back. Biden nailed Cheney

9:09 What about those winks? She’s becoming too familiar. Biden is sticking with it. How has McCain voted any differently than George Bush. What did she just say about who going to Heaven? Joe +1

9:07 Already. Until foreign affairs, they were pretty equal, no one had really scored. But, her naivete is overwhelming, as is Biden’s knowledge. At this point, Joe +2

(Community Matters) She’s back. Didn’t get another picture of her as she was roosting on the railing of our deck, within 4 feet or so of the back door. Unfortunately, as we were coming back to the window, she flew off. I’m hoping she’s adopting us. I’ve temporarily named her Kilpatrick; we’ll see if it sticks.

Hey, wait. She wouldn’t be eyeing my koi would she?

(Community Matters) While suturing a cut on the hand of a 75-yo Texas rancher whose hand was caught in a gate while working cattle, the doctor sturck up a conversation with the old man. Eventually the topic got around to Sarah Palin and her bid to be a heartbeat away from the President.

The old rancher said, “Well, ya know, Palin is a post turtle.”

Not being familiar with the term, the doctor asked him what a post turtle was.

The old rancher said, “When you’re driving down a country road and you come across a fence post with a turtle balanced on top, that’s a post turtle.”

The old rancher saw a puzzled look on the doctor’s face, so he continued. “You know she didn’t get up there by herself, she doesn’t belong up there, she doesn’t know what to do while she is up there, and you just wonder what kind of dumb ass put her there to begin with.”

(Community Matters) Well, first from 538:

As of this morning before today’s polls update, we project Obama victories in Virginia (4.4%), New Hampshire (3.4%), Ohio (2.4%), Florida (2.4%), and Nevada (2.1%), with Indiana a tie. Give all these states to McCain, it’s 269-269 and an Obama presidency.

Allocated by lead, it’s Obama 338, McCain 189, 11 tossup. McCain also projects precarious wins in North Carolina (0.1%) and Missouri (0.4%). . . . A major caveat. The fact that the race can swing this dramatically in this short a time reflects the truth that a few days in presidential politics can be a lifetime. We are both close to the end and yet nowhere near.

I’ve been on several conference calls with campaign staffers this week including David Axelrod, Marygrace Galston, Michael Pratt and Juan Sepulveda.

Tonight’s debate: Sarah’s sandbagging. The GOP is adept at lowering expectations. A review of her Alaskan debate tapes shows she can debate. We shouldn’t launch with any other expectations or allow the McCain campaign to lower the bar among our supporters and independents.

The final election: it’s about the ground operation, and we have undertaken the largest field operation ever.

We’ve always known the battleground states would be won because of new voters.

In Virginia alone, we’ve added 303,000 new voters – only 900,000 total Virginians voted in the Democratic and Republican primaries.

In Colorado, we’ve registered over 250,000 new voters.

We have 60 offices in Ohio, dozens in Nevada and far outnumber the McCain/Sarah Palin campaign in every battleground state. We have more offices, more staff and more volunteers. An unbelieveable number of people are volunteering and we still need more! Register to be a deputy field organizer or to volunteer in a battle ground state here.

It’s the last week of voter registration in lots of states. Citizens are already voting in WA and OR.

We have people on the ground in all the states defending against voter repression. It even happens in Houston regularly where we’ll be defending voters’ rights against an egregious, faux conservative, Harris County Republican Tax Assessor/Collector. Our people have been preparing for this all around the country since June. If you’re an attorney and interested in helping, check out here.

FiveThirtyEight.com estimates an 85% probability Obama will win. And, we know the the radical fringe of the Republican party has substantial power within the McCain/Sarah Palin campaign. We’ve seen it in their not-even-based-on-reality commercials and candidate messages just a couple of weeks ago. It’s going to get nasty. Expect special interests to pour millions into 527’s protecting their interests and the philosophy of “voluntary regulation.” They will make a difference in the polls, so we cannot become complacent.

Please volunteer. And, please give one more time here.

Obviously, in this case, the future of the world really does rest in the outcome of this election.

Eugene