(Community Matters) Well, first from 538:
As of this morning before today’s polls update, we project Obama victories in Virginia (4.4%), New Hampshire (3.4%), Ohio (2.4%), Florida (2.4%), and Nevada (2.1%), with Indiana a tie. Give all these states to McCain, it’s 269-269 and an Obama presidency.
Allocated by lead, it’s Obama 338, McCain 189, 11 tossup. McCain also projects precarious wins in North Carolina (0.1%) and Missouri (0.4%). . . . A major caveat. The fact that the race can swing this dramatically in this short a time reflects the truth that a few days in presidential politics can be a lifetime. We are both close to the end and yet nowhere near.
I’ve been on several conference calls with campaign staffers this week including David Axelrod, Marygrace Galston, Michael Pratt and Juan Sepulveda.
Tonight’s debate: Sarah’s sandbagging. The GOP is adept at lowering expectations. A review of her Alaskan debate tapes shows she can debate. We shouldn’t launch with any other expectations or allow the McCain campaign to lower the bar among our supporters and independents.
The final election: it’s about the ground operation, and we have undertaken the largest field operation ever.
We’ve always known the battleground states would be won because of new voters.
In Virginia alone, we’ve added 303,000 new voters – only 900,000 total Virginians voted in the Democratic and Republican primaries.
In Colorado, we’ve registered over 250,000 new voters.
We have 60 offices in Ohio, dozens in Nevada and far outnumber the McCain/Sarah Palin campaign in every battleground state. We have more offices, more staff and more volunteers. An unbelieveable number of people are volunteering and we still need more! Register to be a deputy field organizer or to volunteer in a battle ground state here.
It’s the last week of voter registration in lots of states. Citizens are already voting in WA and OR.
We have people on the ground in all the states defending against voter repression. It even happens in Houston regularly where we’ll be defending voters’ rights against an egregious, faux conservative, Harris County Republican Tax Assessor/Collector. Our people have been preparing for this all around the country since June. If you’re an attorney and interested in helping, check out here.
FiveThirtyEight.com estimates an 85% probability Obama will win. And, we know the the radical fringe of the Republican party has substantial power within the McCain/Sarah Palin campaign. We’ve seen it in their not-even-based-on-reality commercials and candidate messages just a couple of weeks ago. It’s going to get nasty. Expect special interests to pour millions into 527’s protecting their interests and the philosophy of “voluntary regulation.” They will make a difference in the polls, so we cannot become complacent.
Please volunteer. And, please give one more time here.
Obviously, in this case, the future of the world really does rest in the outcome of this election.
Eugene
Community Matters 