Daily Archives: 10/08/2008

Williamson County

(Community Matters) Not that a few way chilled electeds might not improve things in Williamson County, I suspect Windham isn’t really the one. 

The Race Isn’t Even Close Any Longer

(Community Matters) It is likely to get closer, but at this point the presidential race isn’t even really close. Obama has an average 6 point lead in national polls and state-by-state, Nate projects an 89% probability of his win (345 to 192 electoral votes).

I know Rs are hoping for the Bradley Effect. I take great comfort in Nate Silver’s and, even more importantly, David Plouffe’s analysis during the many primary campaigns that the Bradley Effect doesn’t exist in this race since those voters don’t even lie about supporting Barack, it’s easier to just vote for McCain and admit it. We’re seeing it with some of the (I suspect most) 8% to 12% of Hillary voters who won’t come over, they aren’t promising to vote for Barack and doing otherwise, they are just coming up with another excuse to admit why they are voting for McCain.

You can read the Republican’s despair in last night’s debate by the near silence in R blogger comments and even a few conceding ones.

From one of the Statesman’s site’s most virulent commentors,

“Well let’s see how Michelle is going to redecorate the White House. First thing is to replace those ugly USA flags with the arm and sickle flag of the old Soviet Union. His royal eminence the one we’ve been waiting for likeness will adorne every hall in the Messiah’s palace. All employees will have to wear the old ChiCom uniforms. Well that’s a good start.”

Conceding but certainly not gracious. I’m becoming less and less surprised by Christianistas’ failure to turn the other cheek and the group think frenzy that’s resulting in cries of “traitor” and “kill him” we’re now hearing at Palin rallies. Last night a Republican in the debate audience shouted out “bullshit” when Obama was referring to Iraq and how they weren’t the 9/11 bombers – I didn’t hear but read it on the Economist site.

uh, hmm, talk about fitting through the eye of a needle.

What is it about Palin that’s bringing out the very worst in ourselves? There’s always been something reptilian about her performance and answers. Maybe it’s triggering that reptile portion of our brains – sorta Harry Potter hearing Nangini


Update – a comment to this posting:

Eugene – An interesting comment from Kendell County where my Brother lives.

“No one but some independents will have a change of heart”. An interesting thing that I noted today . . . . I checked the 220 house. The bubba on the corner who makes trailers has had a large McCain/Palin sign on the road. Today, that was replaced by a large Obama/Biden sign. And, every house down to ours had Obama signs. Now . . . THAT tells me a lot about what is happening out there! Interesting, huh!! I am seeing more and more Obama signs up here in good of Kendall “screw those democrats” County. Very, very interesting.

I also noted that the Drudge headline today was “Boring”. Yep, sure was and probably planned that way. Grumpy McCain will be his own undoing. I wonder what the lie count will go up to today


Continued Plunge in Share Prices

(Community Matters) I haven’t been keeping up with this as much as I should. My very uneducated first guess is that it has more to do with international exposure than it does about the adequacy of our recently passed bailout legislation. Makes me wish I had reduced emerging country exposure. Admittedly Fed’s need to purchase public company commercial paper is another very serious red flag. Plan to listen into a bank’s conference call on the topic this morning. More on this topic.

update: wow, a 0.5 pt cut in federal funds rate. US Federal Reserve coordinating with key central banks. Like that they are coordinating. Don’t like further drop in US rates. Though, the former prioritizes.

Debate Polls

(Community Matters)


CNN Poll of undecided Ohio voters:

who did best job? Obama 54%, McCain 34%

favorables up for Obama, his unfavorables down. Favorables/unfavorables unchanged for McCain.

NBC’s focus group of undecided Pennsylvania voters had the Illinois Democrat winning by roughly a 60-40 split.

Frank Luntz’s focus group, over at Fox, showed undecided voters leaning towards Obama because of his position on health care.

CBS’s focus group of independents had the Democratic nominee winning the debate at 39 percent to McCain’s 27 percent, with 35 percent of the respondents saying it was a tie.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, a Democratic polling firm, had a focus group of undecideds leaning to Obama by a margin of 42 percent to 24 percent.

SurveyUSA interviewed 741 debate watchers in the state of Washington, 54 percent of whom thought Obama was the “clear winner” compared with McCain’s 29 percent. That same polling firm had the first debate as a tie. In tonight’s survey: 42 percent of respondents said McCain was too forceful.

How solid was the consensus that Obama scored better tonight? Even Bill Bennett, ever the Republican optimist, conceded that the Illinois Democrat scored higher marks.

The Economist’s correspondent found it rather boring, though his comments are kinda more entertaining. I do recall looking at the clock after 45 minutes thinking this is sorta a long one.

Tonight’s Debate

(Community Matters) More subtle differences. But, this wasn’t as much about what they said as about how they said it. Barack conveyed energy, knowledge, commitment, confidence and specificity. McCain keeps saying, “I know how . . . ” He rarely found his voice. Hard to believe he’s up to the task.

Obama connected with America’s middle class on healthcare, the economy and national security. McCain did better talking about Afghanistan but didn’t connect so much anywhere else.

Game to Barack. McCain needed a game changer.

I believe independents will move to Barack after tonight, not just because of tonight but because of the cumulative confidence from last debate, this debate and their behavior inbetween debates.

9:29 Peggy: what don’t you know and how will you learn it? BO: the American dream. Resurecting it. Can’t do what we’ve been doing the last eight years. McCain: Americans hurting in a way never before. McCain, has spent his whole life serving this country. “I know what it’s like . . . ” ok, we do like when he talks about believing in the country. We just don’t believe he is up to the task any longer.

9:23 Russia evil? BO: good answer. McCain, too equivocal. Terry: support for Israel? Are Terry and the other bald guy in the green shirt lovers? Wow, wish they were. Both candidate agree we would not allow Israel to be threatened by Iran. Still, BO has the voice that gives voters more confidence.

9:18 Russia: McCain, we won’t have another cold war. BO, acknowledging the resurgence of Russia. Getting specific about who we’ve got to support. Obama has a voice here. Is expressing very specific observations and actions required. Energy too. Wins here again. BO +3

9:15 Afghanistan question from Tom: BO’s answer ok. McCain finds his voice here. All his confidence in General Patreaus. McCain +1

9:03 Obama & McCain doctrines: BO: no tolerance for genocide. McCain: his voice gains credibility here. Why doesn’t it on other issues? Katie: should the US respect Pakistan sovereignty? BO: Afghanistan. We took our eyes off the ball with Iraq. We can’t coddle a dictator. McCain is back on the “announcing attacking the country.” Barack, his follow up. That’s right. Who speaks responsibly. McCain keeps going back to “I know how to ….” Why does he think we believe this? He’s never proven that. BO told it str8 +3
Good gosh, are we going to bail out Pakistan now? I’m reading they are virtually bankrupt

8:57 Foreign policy: US as a peace maker? McCain claims BO doesn’t understand national security challenges. Wow, who forsaw the failure of Iraq? McCain expected Iraqis to welcome and embrace us as liberators. BO brings up McCain’s failure of leadership and vision. $10B/month. BO does well: pointing out where they agree: America as the greatest country in the world, with the greatest force for good.
Last debate our friend, a master special needs teacher, said McCain was using that voice adults use when lying to kids. There’s something going on tonight. I wonder if he’s contemptuous that he even has to run for this office against the upstart.

8:55 Healthcare a privilege, right or responsibility? McCain says a responsibility. Barack says it’s a right. I concur. I believe in a wealthy country, we have the right to provide healthcare, housing, food and education for our citizens. Not luxurious, but adequate. And, it’s more efficient to be proactive with healthcare then to rely on emergency room care. hmm, McCain voted against children’s health care? BO +1

8:47 How to fund research and development. Lindsey: health care coverage, should it be treated as a commodity? Barack understands the issue, the principles and the specifics. McCain on his fundamental difference – says Barack will impose mandates. fines. $5k tax credit but isn’t refuting the tax on benefits.
Independents are looking at both these guys and wondering who do I believe. I suspect they are going to be moved by who has the energy and passion for the job. Barack wins there handsdown. McCain comes across as detached and too old.

8:42 Ingrid Jackson, first two years for Congress moving on environmental issues and green jobs. McCain – alternative energy, nuclear energy. He knows the words. Isn’t able to communicate the passion or commitment. I suspect because these aren’t his passions. Barack: not just a challenge, it’s an opportunity. new jobs, economic growth. John McCain voted against alternate energy 23 times. BO +1

8:40 Good gosh, John McCain keeps referring to 30 years back. He could just as well say I was there when they signed the constitution. I know EXACTLY what it says!

8:33 Sharing the burden. He gets that it’s about fairness. McCain – he wastes time. There he goes lying about taxes on small business. The $5k tax credit for health insurance – didn’t address the tax on healthcare benefits. Entitlements: BO on social security & medicare. Clarifying McCain’s distortion of the Obama tax plan. And, he’s highlighting the tax cuts being proposed by McCain. BO +1

8:30 BO on below question: he’s not being specific. He doesn’t have his voice when he doesn’t. Ok, now talking about energy. Finding his voice. His call to conservation will excite America. We want a leader to tell us how to all pitch in. +1

8:27 Internet question about sacrifice: McCain: I do give McCain credit for Boeing boondogle detection. It’s not that he’s not saying the right thing. McCain just doesn’t seem energetic or as reliable. Would Palin become our president???? zero
8:25 Health care, energy and entitlement reform: McCain did okay. Perhaps naive to not prioritize. Voice tired and old. Barack, extraordinary strenght of conviction. Energy #1, healthcare #2, #3 is education to make young people more competitive. BO, good reminding re: spending and taxing

8:20 BO – again, rocks when he talks specifics answering Theresa’s questions about cynical. He’s authentic. McCain I may just be too biased. He’s not hitting a stride with me. His voice is tense and I don’t believe him. I don’t believe voters do either.

8:15 BO – helping ordinary Americans. McCain makes no traction when he says the same things. He doesn’t sound credible.

8:11 Bailout vs Rescue. McCain is putting voters to sleep right now. ok. BO is going to talk about McCain’s campaign manager receiving $2mm from Freddie/Fannie, about his transition manager $3mm from Fannie/Freddie. BO is addressing Oliver’s question first. BO played it more classy than I would have. Good call. He’s scoring confidence. BO +2

8:06 Barack scored with the specificity of his answers to the economic question. Worried me at the beginning by by blaming but ended up extraordinarily strong. McCain came out strong with specificity too (they both obviously rehearsed this topic) but I don’t think Americans liked his comments about renegotiating mortgages. McCain answering about treasury secretary: Warren Buffet (please, he’s supporting BO), Meg Whittman as Treasury secretary? are you joking? BO answering what he wants to say and is connecting with voters in the room and on tv. BO wins – +2