(Community Matters) Disturbing observations from Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com:
John McCain has once again improved his position in the national tracking polls, having gained ground in 4 of the
56 trackers that published today (Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP were the exceptions).** Our model now perceives that Obama has come somewhat off his peak numbers, which were realized perhaps 5-7 days ago.
Though, perhaps explained by:
At the same time, McCain’s improved position in the trackers is a little bit difficult to reconcile with certain other pieces of evidence. In the Research 2000 tracking poll, for instance, while McCain has gained 5 points worth of ground in 48 hours in the topline numbers, the candidates’ approval ratings over that period are completely unmoved. In the Gallup tracker, while McCain has gained ground among likely voters since the debate, he has lost ground among registered voters. Lastly, every poll conducted on the debate itself suggested that Obama won the event.
What I think we may be seeing are some improvements in Republican enthusiasm. Prior to the debate, McCain was having a very rough go of things in the media, as the only stories seemed to be the ineffectiveness of his attacks on Bill Ayers, and the nonresponsiveness of his campaign to the economy. In the polls that measured these things, there was evidence that enthusaism was very low among McCain supporters. A conservative voter, having little real message to latch on to, and seeing McCain far behind in the polls, might have been telling pollsters that he wasn’t sure if he was going to bother to vote, and therefore might have been screened out by likely voter models, which all of the tracking polls are now using.
The McCain/Sarah Palin campaign, the RNC and several 527’s are unleashing millions of dollars and tens of thousands of volunteers with misleading messages, dishonest robocalls and political flyers that would make Jesse Helms blush.
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