(Community Matters) This nugget from my friend David Gail in Dallas
Jonathan Singer:
GOP Suffering Enthusiasm Gap Among Early Voters
Last month I wrote about the potential that early voting might help the Democrats overcome the much-discussed “enthusiasm gap,” because although an unenthusiastic voter might skip going to the polls on election day they might get cajoled to turn in a ballot if harangued over the course of a couple of weeks. Judging by the early numbers, it seems as though this dynamic may in fact be playing out much to the Democrats’ advantage. First the numbers out of Ohio, per professor Michael McDonald:
Ohioans have been casting their ballots for the 2010 midterm elections since September 28th. Voters in other states have also begun casting their ballots. By and large, these ballots are dribbling in, as they typically do so soon in the early voting period. Early voting usually begins to pick up pace as the election nears.
But something special is going on in two Ohio Democratic strongholds: Cuyahoga and Franklin counties. I track on this handy web page that other places around the country — including other Ohio counties — are so far reporting low single digit early voting rates. In stark contrast, over 112,000 votes have already been cast in these two Ohio counties. As a comparison, this represents over ten percent of all ballots cast in the 2006 election in these counties, with still some time to go.
The numbers out of Iowa are even more stark.
Something is afoot in Iowa. Not only have nearly 120,000 voters already cast their ballot, registered Democrats are returning their mail ballots at a higher rate than Republicans in nearly every Iowa county. This, in part, explains the approximately 5:3 partisan registration advantage Democrats have over Republicans among mail ballots returned so far in the Hawkeye state.
Looking at McDonald’s numbers, about 45 percent more Democrats than Republicans have turned in ballots in Iowa thus far, with Democrats making up 42 percent of early voters and Republicans making up just 29 percent. As McDonald notes, this trend could yet change. But at present, the real enthusiasm gap in early voting is actually hurting Republicans, not Democrats.
Community Matters 