Daily Archives: 10/29/2010

(Community Matters) received a note this morning from our partner in Haiti, ConcernWorldwide.  We’ve been in regular contact with Partners in Health, the summary from which I blogged about last week.

Concern’s summary:

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(Community Matters) Seismic shift in Real Clear Politics projection for House – now 173 Ds/ 222 Rs/ 40 toss ups (7 addt’l toss ups since Mon, all from D column).

Nate’s House forecast since Monday Ds – 2, Rs +2   (Ds 203.1; Rs 231.9)

Previous postings: 10/25 (Community Matters) 538: Democratic chances of retaining control of the House are essentially unchanged in today’s FiveThirtyEight forecast. They have a 21 percent chance of doing so, up from 20 percent on Friday; that means Republicans have a 79 percent chance of instead claiming control. The average projection returned a result of 205 Democrats in the House and 230 Republicans, which would reflect a gain of 51 seats for the G.O.P.; this figure is unchanged.  Forecast: Ds 205, Rs 230

RCP: 180/222/33

Oct 23: (Community Matters) bummed to see this am that the House predictions have slipped by 2 and 1 seats in the 538 and RCP forecasts.  And, yet, I remain optimistic that the modeling relying on likely voters is undercounting the showing of Obama first time voters.

10/21: (Community Matters) Nate’s updated 538 forecast to D’s: 206.6  Rs 228.4, and though he gives 3 out of 4 odds of Rs taking the House, he acknowledges that the volatility in these races is very high.

AP is reporting that early voting is breaking toward Ds.  I had DNC Chairman Tim Kaine & OFA Texas Statewide Director Luke Hayes on the Talk on Tuesday radio show – both are optimistic.  Luke believes the fact that we’re contacting and mobilizing 2008 first time voters (not included in likely voters in current polls) will result in a favorable break our way.

RCP forecasting 179/214/42 toss ups

(Community Matters) Austin’s historical landmark designation program is in trouble – AAS article here.

Fortunately, city staff now appears to be exercising higher levels of qualification in their recommendations. This program can work, should work but there has got to be reins on its scope and size – we can’t afford unlimited tax concessions.  Just like our family budgets, the amount of outstanding tax abatements should be set and held.  These abatements may have to expire over time to allow more properties to qualify.  And, our standards for what qualifies as historical should be raised and judiciously enforced.

This program’s trouble stems in part because over zealous preservationists gaming the system – using bogus designation of historic to prevent property owners from remodeling, even completely rebuilding on their property sites. Also in part because sophisticated property owners have abused the system for tax breaks without any real judiciousness by the city staff and city commissions overseeing the program.  In these austere times, it’s not inappropriate that we have to modify terms of this program in order to preserve it and continue preserving historical structures.

(Community Matters) Local boy done good – congrats

(Community Matters) Arkansas school board member who posted anti-gay rant to quit. Thank you Anderson Cooper

(Community Matters) You’ve got to listen to these. I know LGBT youth are not the only ones enduring such pain – no one should

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