(Community Matters) Nate Silver in Sun NY Times Mag “Average these four scenarios together and the probabilities [of Pres Obama’s reelection] come out to almost exactly 50-50. A month or two ago, when Perry and Romney appeared about equally likely to be the Republican nominee, it would therefore have been proper to think of the election as a toss-up. With Perry having slumped in the polls, however, and Romney the more likely nominee, the odds tilt slightly toward Obama joining the list of one-termers. It is early, and almost no matter what, the election will be a losable one for Republicans. But Obama’s position is tenuous enough that it might not be a winnable one for him.”
SNEAK PEEK – N.Y. Times Magazine cover story, “THE 2012 FORECAST. BY NATE SILVER: “(VS. ROMNEY + STALLED ECONOMY) = 17% CHANCE OF AN OBAMA VICTORY – So, Is Obama Toast? … HANDICAPPING OBAMA 2012”:
“CASE STUDY NO. 1: ROMNEY AND STAGNANT ECONOMY
“Obama approval rating in November 2011: 43%
“G.D.P. growth in 2012: 0%
“Probability of winning the popular vote: Romney: 83%, Obama: 17% …
“CASE STUDY NO. 2: ROMNEY AND IMPROVING ECONOMY
“Obama approval rating in November 2011: 43%
“G.D.P. growth in 2012: 4%
“Probability of winning the popular vote: Romney: 40%, Obama: 60% …
“CASE STUDY NO. 3: PERRY AND IMPROVING ECONOMY
Obama approval rating in November 2011: 43%
“G.D.P. growth in 2012: 4.0%
“Probability of winning the popular vote: Perry: 17%, Obama: 83% …
“CASE STUDY NO. 4: PERRY AND STAGNANT ECONOMY
“Obama approval rating in November 2011: 43%
“G.D.P. growth in 2012: 0% ”
Probability of winning the popular vote: Perry: 59%, Obama: 41% …
“Political scientists have long debated between two theoretical constructs of how Americans vote: one might be called the referendum model, and the other might be called the median voter model.” The referendum model reads better for Obama’s reelection.
I do love that Nate’s a member of my tribe.
Hat Tip: Playbook
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