(Community Matters) very insightful summary from Politico below. It’s especially insightful in light of evidence that Pres Obama now wins the majority of confidence in the economy & unemployment, though Gov Romney retains advantage re: handling the deficit – note relative percentages importance.
READING THE VOTERS’ MINDS: The 34-page printout of last night’s New York Times-CBS News poll (taken after the Democratic convention) provides X-ray vision for much of what the candidates are saying on the stump and on the air. Here are a few especially illuminating responses (all of these are from the weighted sample the poll calls “probable electorate”):
–If election held today: Obama/Biden, 46%; Romney/Ryan, 45%
–Add leaners: Obama/Biden, 49%; Romney/Ryan, 46%
–Country going in right direction: 38%; wrong track: 57%
–Most important issue in deciding how to vote: economy: 28%; jobs/unemployment: 13%; health care: 12%; budget deficit: 4%; Medicare/Medicaid: 2%; taxes: 2%
–Congressional approval: 12%; disapproval: 78%
–“The United States is more successful when the government emphasizes self-reliance and individual responsibility“: 41% … “The United States is more successful when the government emphasizes community and shared responsibility“: 51%
–Obama favorable: 44% (unfavorable: 44%) … Romney favorable: 37% (unfavorable: 38%) … Biden favorable: 33% … Ryan favorable: 29% (26% unfave; 32% haven’t heard enough) … Michelle Obama favorable: 61% … Ann Romney favorable: 35% (12% unfave; 37% haven’t heard enough) .. Bill Clinton: favorable 64%
–Which candidate would do more to help middle class Americans? Obama, 54%; Romney, 40% (In the full sample, 42% of respondents describe themselves as middle class.)
–If Romney were elected, his policies would favor: rich: 53% … middle class: 8% … poor: 1% … treat all groups equally: 33%
–If Obama reelected, policies would favor: rich: 12% … middle class: 26% … poor: 22% … treat all groups equally: 30%
–“Do you think it should be legal or not legal for same sex couples to marry?” Legal: 48% … Not legal, 44%
–Continue Bush tax cuts for everyone: 34% … Only for households earning less than $2500,000 a year, 46% … Should expire for all: 13%
THE QUESTION BOSTON IS WATCHING MOST CLOSELY: “Do you think [name] does or does not understand the need and problems of people like yourself?”
–Obama: Yes, 60% … No, 37%
–Romney: Yes, 46% … No, 48%
WHAT MAKES BOSTON CRINGE:
–Medicare should stay as is, or “should be changed to a system in which the government would provide seniors with a fixed amount of money toward purchasing private health insurance or Medicare insurance”: Continue as is, 77% … Should be changed, 15%
WHAT MAKES CHICAGO CRINGE:
–Health-care law approval: 42% (disapproval: 50%)
–Repeal health-care law, in whole or in part: 58%
–Support photo ID to vote (even with question saying some “people say such efforts are designed to suppress voting by minority voters”): 71%
“PROBABLE ELECTORATE” is 22% liberal, 33% moderate and 42% conservative; 35% Democrat, 29% Republican and 32% independent.
ALL RESPONDENTS (doesn’t give figures for probable electorate):
—Only 1% of called themselves upper class; 76% said “middle” or “working”
–Support Tea Party movement: 27%; not a supporter, 66%
–Evangelical or born-again Christian: 29%
–Religious preference: Protestant: 48% … Catholic 21% … None: 19% … Other: 6% … Jewish 2% … Muslim 1% … DK/NA: 4%
As Slate points out: It isn’t all rosy for the president. A majority of likely voters disapprove of how he has handled the economy and a full 70 percent say the economy is fairly bad or very bad. Plus, independent voters, who favored Obama by 8 percentage points in 2008, now seem to be leaning toward Romney by six percentage points.
Community Matters 