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(Community Matters)

(Community Matters) Story in today’s AAS about political fundraising in Texas. Kudos to Bev Reeves (pictured in the article) who’s one of the most enthusiastic people I know, in addition to a fantastic fundraiser. Kirk Rudy & Alexa Wesner our leaders in Austin.

(Community Matters) from 3BlueDudes.com

There have been alot of news media and blogs reporting the Presidential race is tightening. Even Barack Obama said he ‘expects’ the race to tighten. Latest national polling though paints a different picture. The race appears to be slightly widening again, after some minor tightening last week. Take a look …

According to Gallup, the race is NOT tightening, but widening a bit. When looking at registered voters, 2 days ago the race was at 50% Obama and 41% McCain. Today, two days alter, the race is at 52% to 41%, a 11 point lead. That is Obama +2.

Although the absolute percentages supporting Obama and McCain have varied in a narrow range for nearly the past three weeks, Obama’s lead shrank to six points late last week, only to expand again in recent days.

Under the Likely Voters totals, Obama has expanded his lead to 52% to 43%, which is +1 for Obama and -1 for McCain since yesterday. On Saturday, that number was at 49% to 44%, making Obama +3, and McCain -1.

Now, take a look at the Rasmussen Reports daily tracker. Again, after initial tightening last week, the last few days have shown nothing but stability.

How about the weird Zogby tracker.

Zogby showed a tightening yesterday to 47.8% to 45.1% but today shows an expanded Obama lead at 49.8% to 44.1%.

Then there is Research 2000. This poll tightened to 50-43 and stands today at 50-42, McCain losing 1.

So, if anything, over the last day or two, there is evidence that the debate is starting an upward trend again and we have not seen the impact of the Colin Powell endorsement yet, and won’t for at least two days.

So while the mainstream media and the Sludge Report like to report that the race is tightening, the fact is, the polls simply tell a different story. The media is so desperate to have a late night election night, they are beginning to report just anything as well, problem is, people are thinking and looking for themselves, and Obama has the financial resources to counter the national media’s attempt to tighten the race.

(Community Matters) I don’t recall that I’ve ever done so before, but I did vote straight party this morning. It felt great voting for Barack Obama. And, despite projections, given D turnout in the primary race, we could in fact deliver Texas for Obama.

(Community Matters) John Thornton on subliminal innuendo.

(Community Matters) Limbaugh and Buchanan have taken to the airwaves sounding off viciously again. They claim Powell’s endorsement was about race, that Powell would never have endorsed such an inexperienced man otherwise. Excuse me but he endorsed George W Bush eight years ago. And, it’s painfully obvious (even in the context of 8 years ago) that Obama has intellectual firepower, that has never been GWB’s perceived strength.

(Community Matters) Today was kid’s day at St. James. The 7 – 12 year olds read the two lessons, the entire youth ministry sang in today’s choir, and interim Rev Jeffrey Walker invited all kids to the altar area to sit with them while he delivered his sermon (in response to the Gospel reading from Matthew 22:15-22 re: give what is God’s to God, stewardship and responsibility).

And, we celebrated Julia Byrant’s 98th birthday at church today. With Dr. James Mean’s and Hortense Lawson’s recent passing, Julia is the oldest surviving member of our church.

And, the girls have now headed back to Tulsa. This was their first solo trip to see us. Much fun. We’re planning our next venture!

Steven and I both some catching up to do this afternoon before heading to Bastrop for a dinner. Opening up the house and letting in this glorious fall weather.

(Community Matters)

ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos Reports: Former Republican Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich reacted this morning to Colin Powell’s endorsement of Sen. Barack Obama explaining “what that just did in one sound bite…is that it eliminated the experience argument.” The Former Bush Secretary of State announced his long-awaited endorsement Sunday morning, explaining that he is backing Obama “because of his ability to inspire, because of the inclusive nature of this campaign, because he is reaching out all across America, because of who he is and his rhetorical abilities – we have to take that into account – as well as his substance – he has both style and substance – he has met the standard of being a successful president, being an exceptional president.”

Former Presidential Advisor David Gergen categorized Powell’s announcement as “the most important endorsement of the campaign so far”. Tom Friedman of The New York Times agreed explaining, “General Powell helps a lot especially at this moment… That’s a real affirmation that the country can trust Obama as commander in chief.”

And Democratic strategist Donna Brazile added, “this is an endorsement that has enormous dividends for Obama… It says that he wants to govern in a different way… It says that he’s going to reach across the aisle.”

Gingrich, Gergen, Friedman and Brazile were featured, along with George Will, in a powerhouse roundtable on this Sunday’s “This Week with George Stephanopoulos”.

on line here

(Community Matters) Prop 8 – California. Debates around the country.

I don’t get it. Part of who I am is I love Steven Tomlinson. Most people think that’s a good thing. Everyone who knows Steven sees that as a wonderful thing.

(Community Matters) The girls were a little shocked when I pulled into a trailer park for dinner, especially since they’d dressed nicely in new duds for an evening at the theater. Though, comfort, casual friendliness and good food soon won out. Dinner at Torchy’s on S. 1st. It’s a must in our invigorating fall weather.

Zach Scott’s Caroline, or Change. They and Steven loved the show. I liked it a lot, especially Shavanna Calder who STOOD OUT as Emmie Thibodeaux. Tiffany Mann as Radio/the Moon and Frank Viveros as the Dryer/Bus Driver too. All the cast did a terrific job. Wish I’d seen the show on Broadway, because I’d love to talk about the improvements Dave Steakley made as director. I can’t compare but I just know there are many. It was well staged and directed. Knowing how much Michael Raiford adds in additional to set design, kudos to him for his obvious & not-so-obvious contributions. Tony Kushner certainly one of America’s most important contemporary playwrights.

(Community Matters) Disturbing observations from Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com:

John McCain has once again improved his position in the national tracking polls, having gained ground in 4 of the 5 6 trackers that published today (Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP were the exceptions).** Our model now perceives that Obama has come somewhat off his peak numbers, which were realized perhaps 5-7 days ago.

Though, perhaps explained by:

At the same time, McCain’s improved position in the trackers is a little bit difficult to reconcile with certain other pieces of evidence. In the Research 2000 tracking poll, for instance, while McCain has gained 5 points worth of ground in 48 hours in the topline numbers, the candidates’ approval ratings over that period are completely unmoved. In the Gallup tracker, while McCain has gained ground among likely voters since the debate, he has lost ground among registered voters. Lastly, every poll conducted on the debate itself suggested that Obama won the event.

What I think we may be seeing are some improvements in Republican enthusiasm. Prior to the debate, McCain was having a very rough go of things in the media, as the only stories seemed to be the ineffectiveness of his attacks on Bill Ayers, and the nonresponsiveness of his campaign to the economy. In the polls that measured these things, there was evidence that enthusaism was very low among McCain supporters. A conservative voter, having little real message to latch on to, and seeing McCain far behind in the polls, might have been telling pollsters that he wasn’t sure if he was going to bother to vote, and therefore might have been screened out by likely voter models, which all of the tracking polls are now using.

The McCain/Sarah Palin campaign, the RNC and several 527’s are unleashing millions of dollars and tens of thousands of volunteers with misleading messages, dishonest robocalls and political flyers that would make Jesse Helms blush.

Please, please consider:

1. Volunteering to make calls into battleground states,
2. Traveling to a battleground state to campaign and/or
3. Making one more financial contribution here

To volunteer here or email: snolan@barackobama.com

(Community Matters) Ben Smith, Politico.com: Barack Obama apparently attracted more people to his rally today in St. Louis than to his August acceptance speech at Invesco Field in Denver.

Lt. Samuel Dotson of the St. Louis Police Department placed the crowd count at 100,000 people, according to the campaign.

“All I can say is, ‘Wow,'” Obama said just after taking the stage underneath the Gatway Arch.
Politico called Dotson to confirm the crowd figure but has not yet heard back.

If the number is verified, it would be Obama’s largest American crowd, second only to the 200,000 people who turned out for his speech in Berlin, Germany, and more than the 80,000 people who attended his Democratic National Convention speech.
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