Category Archives: Uncategorized

Polls

(Community Matters) Damn, do our buddies at RCL and 538 sleep late or what? Nothing new up on their sites this morning, so I did my own look at their data, graphs, averages and win predictions.

I’m noticing that the polls for most states have been flat for the last 8 to 10 days. Not much movement in public opinion (mostly maintaining the GOP convention bounce?). This is true for Ohio (McCain +3), Michigan (Obama +2), Wisconsin (Obama +5), New Hampshire (Obama +3) and Missouri (McCain +15).

Exceptions to the flat lines, however: Virginia, SurveyUSA and Fox/Rasmussen showing turn toward Obama, though Nate Silver still considers the state lean McCain. Florida, showing a definite move toward McCain and away from Obama during the same time the other states have been flat (Nate says McCain +6 and likely McCain). Colorado had been flat but polls last two days show movement toward McCain (Nate still considers CO a toss up). New Mexico, not much polling taking place here and also considered a toss up. Finally, Nevada had been flat for over a month and now ticking up for both candidates, undecideds? 538 still categorized NV as lean McCain.

Very interested in seeing today’s polls.


Comments: McCain on Economy

(Community Matters) A reader wrote to note that ARMs were created (or began being marketed) under Carter and that abuses were taking place under Clinton, as identified by Clinton’s Federal Trade Commission. My response to his comment:

Jim, no question about creation of ARMS, nor even initial reports of abuse. You’ll note that the concern by a governing federal agency was investigated and cited under Clinton’s Federal Trade Commission. The problem isn’t that the risk wasn’t identified; the problem is that the FTC was initially weakened and politicized under GW Bush. His first appointment as chair of the FTC: a longtime friend and Republican Party official without credentials, Janet Dempsey Steiger, the wife of a Republican Congressman. (Reminiscent of atta-boy Brownie). And, guess who 11th-hour slipped a 262-page bill deregulating swaps into a spending measure? Phil Gramm. And guess what’s been the real culprit in this subprime mortgage financial crisis? Credit default swaps, what Warren Buffett calls financial weapons of mass destruction. Estimates run as high as $62 trillion in CDS exposure, i.e., that’s more than the 2007 $53 trillion estimated world GDP. Seriously, Phil’s responsible for the deregulation of this market. btw, swaps in of themselves aren’t bad things; they’re important tools in financial markets. If we had regulated financial institution capital exposure as well as credit underwriting standards, we wouldn’t be in this mess. Regrettably, the events leading up to this financial crisis have been managed every bit as competently as Katrina relief efforts

McCain on Economy

(Community Matters) At least by the end of the day John McCain was acknowledging there were fundamental threats to the economy; earlier today he said the economy was fundamentally sound.

by the way, I always chuckle when folks are taken aback by Phil Gramm, his role with Senator McCain and his Marie Antoinette comments on the economy. Of course he’s shorting something and gaming folks to buy. That Phil deregulated the financial services industry (as chairman of the powerful Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs) then cashed in on a seven figure salary at UBS is so typical of the the worst Congressional leaders (can you say Rangel, I’m an nonpartisan conflict of interest basher). Also, folks forget that Phil’s wife, Wendy Gramm, gamed Americans as a board & audit committee member of Enron who cashed out many chips while enjoying rich compensation before the bust. She was also quite helpful as the Bush appointed former Chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Folks don’t get that most of McCain’s senior advisers are in these same positions.

Parella Weinberg Partners

(Community Matters) Enjoyed meeting today with Bob Boldt, Lenny Sullivan and Justin Day from Parella Weinberg Partners. Bob formerly ran UTIMCO, Lenny is a former colleague at the business school and Justin’s a former MBA student. Bob & Lenny now partners at PWP; Justin’s left Endeavor to work with Lenny. Impressive organization, the Austin operations formed by Bob and several colleagues also formerly of UTIMCO, Agility Funds, intended to provide advantages of large endowment investment model to organizations which couldn’t otherwise access these investment options.

Leadership Austin

(Community Matters) They’ve released the list of this year’s class:

Greg Abel – Grande Communications, Inc.
Damon Arhos – Freescale Semiconductor
Mason Arnold – Greenling Organic Delivery
Aman Bandali – Bandali Builders and Estate Developers
René Barrera – City of Austin
Dayna Blazey – Travis County District Attorney’s Office
Brian Block – Keep Austin Beautiful
Geoffrey Brow – Dell Inc.
Scott Brutocao – Ogletree Deakins Nash Smoak & Stewart, PC
Amber Carden – Bank of America
Angie Castilleja – Make A Wish Foundation of Central & South Texas
Tom Coopwood – Community Volunteer
Priscilla Guajardo Cortez – The University of Texas at Austin
Christi Cuellar – Ballet Austin
Peter Daniels – A New Entry Inc.
Carol Drennan – Katz Builders, Inc.
Chris Ewen – Client Outsource
Traci Fish – Tangoe, Inc.
Tina Gramann – Zachary Scott Theatre Center
Ann Greenberg – Walsh, Anderson, Brown, Schulze, & Aldridge, P.C.
Laura Griebel – Goodwill Industries of Central Texas Inc.
Amy Holloway – Avalanche Consulting, Inc.
Scott Ingram – ADP
Mark Isaak – PBS&J
Gwen Jewiss – PageSoutherlandPage
Olivia Juarez – Wells Fargo Bank
Bill Kempf – Applied Materials Inc.
Tamra Kerns – National Instruments Corp.
Ali Khataw – Encotech Engineering Consultants, Inc.
Tara Kirkland – Greenlights for NonProfit Success
Adams Kirkpatrick – Sunflower Design
Michelle Krejci – Ann Richards School for Young Women Leaders
Jamie Lagarde – Overwatch Systems
Marion Martin – YMCA of Austin Inc.
Michael McGill – Freescale Semiconductor
Linda Medina – Greater Austin Hispanic Chamber of Commerce
Craig Moore – Travis County District Attorney’s Office
Brandy Mueller – The Mueller Law Office
Andrea Ogilvie – The University of Texas at Austin
Patricia Paredes – Texas Campus Compact
Tina Prentice – St. David’s Community Health Foundation
Diane Rhodes – Texas Dental Association
Pilar Sanchez – Housing Authority of the City of Austin
Carolyn Schwarz – Health Alliance for Austin Musicians
Paul Scott – Equality Texas
Emily Shaw – I&O Communications
Kevin Smothers – pulse
D’Andra Ulmer – grand beginnings, Inc
Alex Valdes – Winstead PC
Arthur Vargas – Austin Community College
Madge Vasquez – Wachovia Bank
Amy Welborn – Kelly Hart & Hallman LLP
Matt Williamson – The Beck Group
Pat Wilson – First Marathon Financial

congratulations to them all!

(Community Matters) Not tons of new polls in yet today but those I am seeing show McCain’s convention bounce waining and Obama regaining ground.

Subsequent note: when I originally wrote this I was refering to Real Clear Politics reported polls. 538 is noting also as well as Obama ahead of the previously disturbing trend line.

Political Persuasion

(Community Matters) Sean Quinn at 538 discussing D approach to Sarah Palin

People under attack can’t be persuaded. And persuasion is the goal, remember? You can’t reason someone out of his or her feelings. But you can validate those feelings, buy their willingness to listen, and then calmly make your logical case.

Conservatives Deserve a Chance

(Community Matters) Andrew Sullivan has long complained of the hijacking of the Republican Party by Neo Conservatives and the Christianistas. In his column today Leonard Pitts displays little sympathy for those ideological conservatives who complain that conservatives have had no voice in the administrations of the last 16 years.

If true conservatives hate seeing that kind of duplicity associated with conservatism, I understand. But I have a question for them: Where have you been the last 15 years? Where were you when conservatism was untethered from principle, unhooked from reality? Where were you when it became smug and self-righteous, when it traded its integrity for situational outrage, its credibility for angry certitude, its honor for ballot box success? Where were you when it sold out to evangelicals and anti-intellectuals? Where were you when it got hijacked?

Americans have bought conservative the last eight years and ended up with the largest deficit in history, a percipitiously weak national economic system, and armed forces so weakened we can barely protest when Iran or Russia go on the offensive.

Houston

(Community Matters) I keep hearing worse information and wondering what the rest of us should be doing.

Lies

(Community Matters) For the most part, I intend to focus on the positive of Obama’s campaign and the reasons he’ll be elected president. But, we can’t ignore the tidal wave of opinion which chronicles the loss of honor of the, once an American hero. In the future, we’ll be citing a McCain bargain as we do today a Faustian bargain. This campaign will go down in history as our biggest roller coaster ride. I refuse to believe Americans won’t bail on the ticket once the ball gets rolling.

John Aravosis at Americablog did an excellent job listing the editorials calling out John McCain for lies and distortions.

St. Petersburg Times (Editorial) “Campaign of lies disgraces McCain” McCain’s straight talk has become a toxic mix of lies and double-speak. It is leaving a permanent stain on his reputation for integrity, and it is a short-term strategy that eventually will backfire with the very types of independent-thinking voters that were so attracted to him.

Atlanta Journal Constitution (Jay Bookman) The volume and audacity of lies pouring from the McCain campaign is startling and even historic…That’s really something, lying straight out about a FactCheck group, knowing that you’re going to get caught but not giving a damn about it. With stuff like this, the McCain camp has cut any remaining tethers to reality and integrity and is now floating wherever the winds of illusion and whimsy may take them. It’s quite remarkable, and quite insulting to the intelligence of the American people.

Pittsburg Post Gazette (Tony Norman) Where have you gone, John McCain? You once said you’d rather lose an election than lose a war. Is it worth winning an election if it means forfeiting your soul on the altar of political expediency?…Where is the honor in reciting lies for something as transient as political advantage? What are we as voters supposed to make of political ads that accuse Barack Obama of advocating sex education for kindergartners?… Despite the intellectually dishonest maneuvering of your campaign, many Americans admire you, John McCain. Before you embraced the darkness, I was among those who disagreed with your politics, but considered you honorable. Now it’s hard to look at you without seeing the scoundrels who made you what you are today.

Kansas City Star (Barb Shelly) McCain stoops to deception, distortion: Maybe you’ve seen it. The campaign ad cites the authoritative journal Education Week to claim that Democrat Barack Obama has been missing in action on education reform…Shamelessly misleading the public?…These are old tricks we’ve been seeing in local elections for years. Distort. Twist. Deceive. Damage. And the winning candidate drags a load of public contempt into office. I had hoped for better from McCain…John McCain may win the presidency this way, but he will lose the respect he has acquired over the years.

Boston Globe (Scot Lehigh) Pretzel logic from the McCain campaign: Here’s the question voters should be asking themselves this week: Just how stupid does the McCain-Palin campaign think I am? The answer: Dumb enough to hoodwink with charges so contrived and cynical they make your teeth ache…As the nonpartisan campaign watchdog FactCheck.org has made clear, this is a thoroughly dishonest ad [Kindergarten]. No matter. The McCain campaign has shown it’s ready and willing to say preposterous things to win.

Washington Post (David Ignatius) Stopping at nothing to win: Thinking about the Palin choice, you begin to ponder other moves McCain has made on the road to winning the Republican nomination. McCain was right a few years ago to warn that Bush’s tax cuts would have potentially ruinous fiscal consequences; now he favors extending the cuts that have produced a crisis of debt and deficit. Why did he switch his position, other than political opportunism?…In May 2006, after McCain had courted the Rev. Jerry Falwell in an effort to win conservative support, I asked him if he was bending his principles for the sake of winning. “I don’t want it that badly,” McCain answered. “I will continue to do what is right…If that means I can’t get the Republican nomination, fine. I’ve had a happy life. The worst thing I can do is sell my soul to the devil.” He was right.

Washington Post (Eugene Robinson) The Scream Machine: There was a time when Republicans campaigned on their ideas, programs and values. This year — lacking ideas, programs or values — John McCain and Sarah Palin are running for the White House on an elaborate fictional narrative of victimhood…Creating the false impression that Democrats and journalists are unfairly attacking Palin serves another purpose as well: It helps create the impression that legitimate and necessary questions about her record — such as her one-time support for the Bridge to Nowhere or her history of seeking the congressional earmarks she now claims to reject — are somehow out of bounds.

Chicago Tribune (Steve Chapman) To McCain the truth is expandable: McCain has concluded that a fact-based case about Obama isn’t enough to prevail in November. So he has chosen to smear his opponent with ridiculous claims that he thinks the American people are gullible enough to believe. He has charged repeatedly that his opponent is willing to lose a war to win an election. What’s McCain willing to lose to become president? Nothing so consequential as a war. Just his soul.

Chicago Tribune (Frank James) “McCain plays dirty on Obama & sex-ed” So the McCain ad, in the way it contorts the truth, is pretty shocking from a candidate who has promised to bring change and reform to Washington, a man who’s urging Americans to live for a cause larger than themselves. This is an old-fashioned, unreconstructed politics whose goal, first and foremost, is to get the candidate elected, the truth be damned. McCain has said he’d rather lose a campaign than lose a war. But it appears from this ad he’d rather lose any purchase he has on straight-talk than lose this presidential election.

Chicago Tribune (Eric Zorn) `Sex ed’ ad educates us on the character of John McCain: The surprise came at the end: I’m John McCain and I approved this message. With that infamous admission, McCain surrendered his integrity and signaled a willingness to say or do anything to get elected… We used to expect better from John McCain. No longer.

TIME (Joe Klein): A new rule here: Rather than do the McCain campaign’s bidding by wasting space on Senator Honor’s daily lies and bilge–his constant attempts to divert attention from substantive issues–I’m going to assume that others will spend more than enough time on the sewage that Steve Schmidt is shoveling and, from now on, try to stick to the issues.

TIME (Joe Klein) Apology Not Accepted: he is responsible for one of the sleaziest ads I’ve ever seen in presidential politics, so sleazy that I won’t abet its spread by linking to it, but here’s the McClatchy fact check.. I just can’t wait for the moment when John McCain–contrite and suddenly honorable again in victory or defeat–talks about how things got a little out of control in the passion of the moment. Talk about putting lipstick on a pig.

TIME (Joe Klein) Another McCain Flip Flop: Army Times, which is not–last time I checked–a radical left wing publication, takes John McCain to task for changing his position on the Future Combat Systems program. This is yet another example of how running for President has driven McCain off the deep end. In the past, he was one of the more consistent voices against foolish Pentagon weapon systems. Here’s a program that McCain previously wanted to end. Then Obama says he wants to slow-walk it…and McCain–reflexively, it appears, and unable to recall that he previously opposed it–decides to support it.

New York Times (Paul Krugman) Blizzard of Lies: I’m talking, instead, about the relationship between the character of a campaign and that of the administration that follows. Thus, the deceptive and dishonest 2000 Bush-Cheney campaign provided an all-too-revealing preview of things to come…And now the team that hopes to form the next administration is running a campaign that makes Bush-Cheney 2000 look like something out of a civics class. What does that say about how that team would run the country? What it says, I’d argue, is that the Obama campaign is wrong to suggest that a McCain-Palin administration would just be a continuation of Bush-Cheney. If the way John McCain and Sarah Palin are campaigning is any indication, it would be much, much worse.

New York Times (Editorial): The most disheartening aspect of a scurrilous Republican ad falsely accusing Barack Obama of promoting sex education for kindergarten children is its closing line: “I’m John McCain, and I approved this message.” This from that straight-talker of yore, who fervidly denounced the 2004 Bush campaign’s Swift Boat character attacks on John Kerry’s military record. What a difference four years makes, especially after Mr. McCain secured the nomination by hiring some of the same low-blow artists from the Bush campaign.

New York Times (Larry Rohter): The advertisement [“Disrespectful”] is the latest in a number that resort to a dubious disregard for the facts. The nonpartisan political analysis group Factcheck.org has already criticized “Disrespectful” as “particularly egregious,” saying that it “goes down new paths of deception,” and is “peddling false quotes.”

New York Times (Michael Cooper and Jim Rutenberg) McCain Barbs Stirring Outcry as Distortions: Mr. McCain came into the race promoting himself as a truth teller and has long publicly deplored the kinds of negative tactics that helped sink his candidacy in the Republican primaries in 2000. But his strategy now reflects a calculation advisers made this summer — over the strenuous objections of some longtime hands who helped him build his “Straight Talk” image — to shift the campaign more toward disqualifying Mr. Obama in the eyes of voters.

ABC News-Political Punch (Jake Tapper): One can only imagine what the John McCain of 2004 – who called the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ads “dishonest and dishonorable” – would say about this ad… I suppose one could twist this stuff any way you want if your only point is to make an inflammatory charge. And win an election… The New York Times’ “Checkpoint” (“Ad on Sex Education Distorts Obama Policy “), Factcheck.org (“Obama, contrary to the ad’s insinuation, does not support explicit sex education for kindergarteners”) and the Washington Post’s Fact Checker (“McCain’s ‘Education’ Spot Is Dishonest, Deceptive“) say the ad is a gross distortion. I agree — in both senses of the word “gross.”

AP (Charles Babington): The “Straight Talk Express” has detoured into doublespeak. Republican presidential nominee John McCain, a self-proclaimed tell-it-like-it-is maverick, keeps saying his running mate, Sarah Palin, killed the federally funded Bridge to Nowhere when, in fact, she pulled her support only after the project became a political embarrassment. He said Friday that Palin never asked for money for lawmakers’ pet projects as Alaska governor, even though she has sought nearly $200 million in earmarks this year. He says Obama would raise nearly everyone’s taxes, when independent groups say 80 percent of families would get tax cuts instead.

McCain’s 527’s Unleashed

(Community Matters) and reportedly fully funded by Texas billionaire Harold Simmons here

McCain Tax Plan, Greenspan and Tax Spending

(Community Matters) Outlined by Jason Furman here