Daily Archives: 06/05/2009

(Community Matters) oh yeah, I’m reminded. I also heard a rumor that the Austonian will be boarded up as a shell due to lack of financing to finish. Hope this isn’t true and just heard once – so quite possibly a bad rumor.

(Community Matters) Sales of pasta predict the economy. Yep, we were told the sales of American Italian Pasta Company are directly inverse to the American economy. So follow American Italian Pasta’s stock price for one of the best crystal balls cited.

This was one of the more amusing, yet serious, items listed by Bill Perotti, Chief Credit Office/Chief Risk Officer for Frost Bank at yesterday’s KUT Leadership Luncheon Series on the 5 Things to Watch in the Local Economy.

Our two other panelists were my friend Prof Michael Brandl from the McCombs School and Austin icon/Westlake Councilmember Amy Simmons (founder & CEO of Amy’s Ice Cream). Yesterday’s moderator was KUT award winning correspondent Nathan Bernier – who’s gotta be the sexiest radio correspondent I know.

Austin unemployment at 5.8%, Texas 6.3%, USA 8.6%. Expectations of announcements that USAs will rise to 9%. Appears to be consensus (gut feels) that we’ve hit bottom. I failed to ask if they believed a false bottom/double dip recession is possible (and I realize even the thought of such is unproductively pessimistic, possibly even paranoid. And, I’m reminded it pays to be paranoid).

Austin relatively lucky. As my previous blog entry notes, Austin continues to lead the nation in job growth. Admittedly, Austin tends to follow national and statewide economic trends. Amy noted a concern about the job growth as relates to government jobs and resulting bureaucracy . . . as well as Austin’s risky sense of invulnerability.

All three panelists noted concerns about the imposition of additional regulations/conditions in today’s economic policy without the unburdening of older compliance requirements.

Michael noted Austin’s reliance on the semiconductor and computer sectors as a continued vulnerability. I note recent announcements of better than expected semiconductor orders and low manufacturers’ inventory levels.

I liked Bill’s reminder that 30% of US homes have no mortgages whatsoever and 97% of mortgages are in good standing. He also cited – excepting 3 states plus two cities – we enjoy lower than average foreclosure rates. Continued and very real vulnerability to housing prices.

Many thanks to KUT Manager Stewart Venderwilt, Valerie Phillips and Nathan Bernier for a super luncheon and presentation.

(Community Matters) Wow, already 20 years. I can still remember the images on television, and I remember the first hand stories told to me by American Embassy personnel who had perched on the roof and who were shot at by the military. I’ll try to find my journal entries (it was BB, before blog).