(Community Matters) Reading Hale Stewart’s analysis on 538.
Temporary help services and health care continued to add jobs over the month.
Employment in federal government also rose, reflecting the hiring of temporary workers for Census 2010. Employment continued to decline in financial activities and in information. Total private hiring was 123,000 — meaning the “census workers tilted the numbers” argument is wrong. Unemployment rate for:
Less than a high school diploma: 14.5%
High school with no college: 10.8%
Some college or associates degree: 8.2%
Bachelor’s or higher: 4.9% (this is near full employment from an economic perspective)The 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims continues to move lower. This indicates that the number of people entering the ranks of the unemployed continues to drop. The number of people unemployed for less than 5 weeks continues to drop. In addition, this number is approaching more “normal” levels.
The number of people unemployed for longer than 27 weeks is still increasing. The primary reason for this is a large percentage of job losses during the recession (over 70%) occurred in construction and manufacturing. Construction will never return to the levels seen in the last expansion and manufacturing is undergoing a productivity revolution where employees are being replaced by automation. As such, former construction and manufacturing employees will face an incredibly difficult job environment going forward.
the establishment survey:
from October of 2008 to March 2009 the economy lost over 600,000/month. That means that over a 5 month period the economy lost over 3 million jobs. In addition, remember that during the recession the economy lost all the jobs created in the last expansion
The establishment survey was solid. First, total private hiring was 123,000 — meaning the “census workers tilted the numbers” argument is wrong. Secondly, goods producing jobs increased 41,000. This sector of the economy has been a drag on growth for the last few months. In addition, construction and manufacturing jobs account for the vast majority (over 70%) of all job losses during the recession. So an increase in this area of the jobs market is welcome.
service jobs saw an increase of 82,000, with only two service sector areas (financial services and information technology) showing decreases.
Community Matters 