Category Archives: Uncategorized

(Community Matters) We’re still waiting on the assignment of Florida’s 29 electoral votes – for now Pres Obama has won reelection 303 to 206. It appears he’ll have won by 332 to 206 and the popular vote 50% to 48%, or 58.7mm to 56.1mm.

Rs keep the House and Ds keep the Senate. Elizabeth Warren’s election is a huge win for consumers.

Equality prevailed. We’ll have our first openly gay Senator Tammy Baldwin and marriage equality won in Maine, Maryland and Minnesota – too close for a final call in Washington (state) but remain optimistic.

Voters in Travis County approved funding for our medical school. Austin voters approved 7 of 8 bond propositions and geographical representation. Housing bonds failed. This is regrettable, especially now when prices are probably as low as they will ever be and dollars to solve our increasing affordability problems can be most leveraged.

I’m hoping Ds and Rs can agree to move forward collaboratively. If House members refuse to compromise, then the President will have to become creative  in solving our fiscal issues. In the Senate, it’s time to end the 60 vote requirement to override a filibuster – maybe a 54 or 55 votes instead.

(Community Matters) First, I’m not gloating. It’s been a hard race for both sides, and I wouldn’t bet a lot of money. I believe Pres Obama has run a better campaign, is the better candidate, and will win by a larger margin than expected. I wish our country wasn’t so divided. I wish we could come together, less acrimonious and more committed to rebuilding the country we love after this election, no matter the outcome.

I also wish Texas was blue, and believe it will be by the next presidential election.

(Community Matters) Voter suppression, intimidation and systematic ways of lowering participation – we’d been warned, seen state legislatures’ attempts and now we’re seeing at the polls. Florida

(Community Matters) He was a friend of immigrants, then a scourge of immigrants, then again a friend. He was a Kissingerian foreign policy realist, then a McCain-like hawk, then a purveyor of peace. He pioneered Obamacare, he detested Obamacare, then he found elements in it to cherish. Assault weapons were bad, then good. Abortion was okay, then bad. Climate change was an urgent problem; then, not so much. Hurricane cleanup was a job for the states, until it was once again a job for the feds.

Washington Post presidential endorsement

Bloomberg on Mitt’s tax dodge

(Community Matters) Pew’s last poll before Tuesday: “Obama Gains Edge in Campaign’s Final Days.  Obama 50% – Romney 47%

Barack Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign. In the Pew Research Center’s election weekend survey, Obama holds a 48% to 45% lead over Romney among likely voters.

The survey finds that Obama maintains his modest lead when the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account. Our final estimate of the national popular vote is Obama 50% and Romney 47%, when the undecided vote is allocated between the two candidates, based on several indicators and opinions.

The race was deadlocked as recently as a week ago, before Hurricane Sandy devastated the East Coast. Obama’s handling of the storm’s aftermath may have contributed to his improved showing. Fully 69% of all likely voters approve of the way Obama is handling the storm’s impact. Even a plurality of Romney supporters (46%) approve of Obama’s handling of the situation; more important, so too do 63% of swing voters. In addition, Obama’s recent gains have been most notable in the Northeast, which was hit hardest by Sandy.

The survey also finds:

• Voter turnout, which may be lower than in 2008 and 2004, remains one of Romney’s strengths. Romney’s supporters continue to be more engaged in the election and interested in election news than are Obama supporters, and are more committed to vote.

• The race is as close in the nine battleground states as it is nationally: 49% of likely voters in battleground states support Obama while 47% back Romney.

• Obama has more strong support than Romney, and the candidate with a higher percentage of strong support has won the popular vote in most elections since 1960.

• Early voters make up a sizable percentage of all voters, but there is no sign that early voters are breaking decisively toward either candidate. Among the 34% of likely voters who say they have already cast their ballot, 48% say they supported Obama, 46% Romney. “

(Community Matters) “How does living in an environment defined by individual achievement – measured by money, privilege, and status – alter a person’s mental machinery at the point where he begins to see the people around him only as aids or obstacles to his own ambitions?”

referring to this New York magazine article – Does Money Make You Mean? – after a startling revelation. I’ve recently purchased a new, expensive car. Feels spectacular to drive it, and I drive a lot toggling between Central & West Texas – but one afternoon I caught myself thinking ‘hey, watch out for my new, expensive car you little inexpensive car.” I was floored. That’s not like me. I’m not from money and am not rich. Where in the hell had this little voice come from and how the hell can I exorcise him? Went on a search for this phenomenon and found this interesting article.

(Community Matters) Great dinner and concert last night. Today’s 11am service at St James Episcopal (1941 Webberville Rd) will feature a Bobby Humphrey preformance, is free and open to the public

(Community Matters) Princeton Election Consortium: President Obama is peeling away. I estimate Romney’s chance of winning the popular vote at 6%, odds of 16-1 against. The exact popular-vote prediction today is Obama +2.1 +/- 1.1%. Allowing a little bit for Gary Johnson, this gives a vote share of Obama 50.3 +/-0.5%, Romney 48.2 +/-0.5%. I’ll update that to a final prediction this weekend.

About the Princeton Election Consortium

This blog’s mission is to provide informed analysis of US national elections by members of the Princeton academic community. It is open to scholars in the Princeton area from all disciplines, including (but not restricted to) politics, neuroscience, psychology, computer science, and mathematics.

(Community Matters) Excellent evening on Lake Austin last night with friends Kate Ludeman & Eddie Erlandson – only thing missing was Lynn & Tommie. The six of us have spent many great evenings together w/ some of the best conversations ever. Well . . . and we should add Deborah & Clayton who are evidently in perfect orbit.

Eddie’s newly restored ’54 Chris Craft

(Community Matters) The economy added 171,000 jobs in October, Ohioans responding negatively to Romney’s misleading Jeep ads, Americans appreciating the Pres’ concern for rising tides and healing the planet.

 
These are probabilities, not anything like a certainty. It’s still a close race and the next 3 days count.

(Community Matters)

watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ZENtH3psXl4

(Community Matters) Is Matt Romney trying to line up Russian investors anticipating his capital will never be higher (anticipating his father will lose)? If not, why isn’t he campaigning instead of on a foreighn business trip? And, if Mitt wins, should we anticipate his sons will be selling their access around the world? Seriously, one of them already is. A Romney Travels to Russia, but on Strictly Friendly Terms