(Community Matters) McAuliffe won, but by a sliver – why’d the polls show a much bigger margin? Politico on “Why Terry McAuliffe barely won,”
TOP TALKER – “Why Terry McAuliffe barely won,” by James Hohmann: “Most public polls leading up to Election Day had Terry McAuliffe coasting to victory, some by double digits, in the Virginia governor’s race. Instead he squeaked by, beating Republican Ken Cuccinelli by less than 3 percentage points. The much-closer-than-expected outcome blunts the narrative that this was a clean win for Democrats going into 2014 and guarantees an intense blame game among Republicans about what might have put Cuccinelli over the top. Based on a review of returns, exit polls and conversations with operatives, here are six takeaways from the surprise election of the night:
1) Obamacare almost killed McAuliffe. … When President Obama crossed the Potomac for McAuliffe Sunday, he glaringly avoided even mentioning his signature accomplishment … Exit polls show a majority of voters – 53 percent – opposed the law. Among them, 81 percent voted for Cuccinelli and 8 percent voted for Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis. McAuliffe won overwhelmingly among the 46 percent who support the health care overhaul. Cuccinelli actually won independents by 9 points, 47 percent to 38 percent, according to exit polls conducted for a group of media organizations. They made up about one-third of the electorate. … 2) Cuccinelli might have won if he had more money. Even before Cuccinelli delivered his concession speech, the candidate’s close allies were already beginning to blame outside groups for not helping out more. McAuliffe outraised Cuccinelli by almost $15 million … The Republican National Committee spent about $3 million on Virginia this year, compared to $9 million in the 2009 governor’s race. The Chamber of Commerce spent $1 million boosting McDonnell in 2009 and none this time. …
3) It was a base election. … 4) The gender gap mirrored the presidential. Exit polls showed McAuliffe only won women by 9 points, the same margin Obama won them by in the presidential election last year. … 5) Obama himself was a mixed bag. 6) The shutdown still hurt Republicans.” http://goo.gl/V79hS8
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