Daily Archives: 09/08/2008

(Community Matters) Michael Mitchell and I were walking up S. Congress last night looking for a place to have dinner and talked about the parking lot just south of the Congress Avenue Baptist Church. Today, AAS reports on the boutique hotel being developed. Very cool for S. Congress. San Jose stays booked.

(Community Matters) Gotta love it

(Community Matters) From Washington Post/CNN media critic, Howie Kurtz:

McCain, with the addition of a rookie governor, is no longer running as the candidate of experience. Instead, he is trying to steal the “change” mantra from his Democratic rival, Barack Obama…

(Community Matters) Self-acknowledged homophobes may want to relocate here

(Community Matters) According to Nate Silver at 538:

Rasmussen has just released polling from five key swing states. When coupled with PPP‘s new poll of Michigan and SurveyUSA‘s new release from Virginia, we see a race that is relatively unchanged from the pre-convention period, but with incremental trends in different states that might portend changes in electoral strategy.

At a macro level, these numbers seem like basically good news for Obama, since the overall numbers in swing states haven’t moved much at all – just shifted around some from region to region. McCain is polling about 3 points better right now than he was at the pre-convention equilibrium. It’s possible that those 3 points are manifesting themselves mostly in states that were already very red. Maybe Obama will lose Idaho and Nebraska and Alabama by 30 points rather than 20, but that doesn’t help McCain very much electorally (an exception might be in a state like Indiana).

Going into the conventions, the race was trending to Barack Obama by roughly 1 point. At the height of his convention bounce early last week, Obama had moved into a 5-6 point lead, indicating a convention bounce of 4-5 points. Now, over the past weekend, the polling appears to have transitioned into a 2-3 point McCain lead, indicating movement of 7-8 points.

McCain’s bounce is probably now fully manifested. I think he might pick up one more point or so in the Gallup tracker tomorrow, as I show slightly stronger results for him on Sunday (+5.0) and Saturday (+7.2) than I do on Friday (+2.7). But I don’t know that he’s going to get much more than that without further, intervening events.

(Community Matters) It’s bold and it tells the truth

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