Daily Archives: 09/16/2008

(Community Matters)

(Community Matters) Damn, do our buddies at RCL and 538 sleep late or what? Nothing new up on their sites this morning, so I did my own look at their data, graphs, averages and win predictions.

I’m noticing that the polls for most states have been flat for the last 8 to 10 days. Not much movement in public opinion (mostly maintaining the GOP convention bounce?). This is true for Ohio (McCain +3), Michigan (Obama +2), Wisconsin (Obama +5), New Hampshire (Obama +3) and Missouri (McCain +15).

Exceptions to the flat lines, however: Virginia, SurveyUSA and Fox/Rasmussen showing turn toward Obama, though Nate Silver still considers the state lean McCain. Florida, showing a definite move toward McCain and away from Obama during the same time the other states have been flat (Nate says McCain +6 and likely McCain). Colorado had been flat but polls last two days show movement toward McCain (Nate still considers CO a toss up). New Mexico, not much polling taking place here and also considered a toss up. Finally, Nevada had been flat for over a month and now ticking up for both candidates, undecideds? 538 still categorized NV as lean McCain.

(Community Matters) A reader wrote to note that ARMs were created (or began being marketed) under Carter and that abuses were taking place under Clinton, as identified by Clinton’s Federal Trade Commission. My response to his comment:

Jim, no question about creation of ARMS, nor even initial reports of abuse. You’ll note that the concern by a governing federal agency was investigated and cited under Clinton’s Federal Trade Commission. The problem isn’t that the risk wasn’t identified; the problem is that the FTC was initially weakened and politicized under GW Bush. His first appointment as chair of the FTC: a longtime friend and Republican Party official without credentials, Janet Dempsey Steiger, the wife of a Republican Congressman. (Reminiscent of atta-boy Brownie). And, guess who 11th-hour slipped a 262-page bill deregulating swaps into a spending measure? Phil Gramm. And guess what’s been the real culprit in this subprime mortgage financial crisis? Credit default swaps, what Warren Buffett calls financial weapons of mass destruction. Estimates run as high as $62 trillion in CDS exposure, i.e., that’s more than the 2007 $53 trillion estimated world GDP. Seriously, Phil’s responsible for the deregulation of this market. btw, swaps in of themselves aren’t bad things; they’re important tools in financial markets. If we had regulated financial institution capital exposure as well as credit underwriting standards, we wouldn’t be in this mess. Regrettably, the events leading up to this financial crisis have been managed every bit as competently as Katrina relief efforts

(Community Matters) At least by the end of the day John McCain was acknowledging there were fundamental threats to the economy; earlier today he said the economy was fundamentally sound.

(Community Matters) Enjoyed meeting today with Bob Boldt, Lenny Sullivan and Justin Day from Parella Weinberg Partners. Bob formerly ran UTIMCO, Lenny is a former colleague at the business school and Justin’s a former MBA student. Bob & Lenny now partners at PWP; Justin’s left Endeavor to work with Lenny. Impressive organization, the Austin operations formed by Bob and several colleagues also formerly of UTIMCO, Agility Funds, intended to provide advantages of large endowment investment model to organizations which couldn’t otherwise access these investment options.

(Community Matters) They’ve released the list of this year’s class:

Greg Abel – Grande Communications, Inc.
Damon Arhos – Freescale Semiconductor
Mason Arnold – Greenling Organic Delivery
Aman Bandali – Bandali Builders and Estate Developers
René Barrera – City of Austin
Dayna Blazey – Travis County District Attorney’s Office
Brian Block – Keep Austin Beautiful
Geoffrey Brow – Dell Inc.
Scott Brutocao – Ogletree Deakins Nash Smoak & Stewart, PC
Amber Carden – Bank of America
Angie Castilleja – Make A Wish Foundation of Central & South Texas
Tom Coopwood – Community Volunteer
Priscilla Guajardo Cortez – The University of Texas at Austin
Christi Cuellar – Ballet Austin
Peter Daniels – A New Entry Inc.
Carol Drennan – Katz Builders, Inc.
Chris Ewen – Client Outsource
Traci Fish – Tangoe, Inc.
Tina Gramann – Zachary Scott Theatre Center
Ann Greenberg – Walsh, Anderson, Brown, Schulze, & Aldridge, P.C.
Laura Griebel – Goodwill Industries of Central Texas Inc.
Amy Holloway – Avalanche Consulting, Inc.
Scott Ingram – ADP
Mark Isaak – PBS&J
Gwen Jewiss – PageSoutherlandPage
Olivia Juarez – Wells Fargo Bank
Bill Kempf – Applied Materials Inc.
Tamra Kerns – National Instruments Corp.
Ali Khataw – Encotech Engineering Consultants, Inc.
Tara Kirkland – Greenlights for NonProfit Success
Adams Kirkpatrick – Sunflower Design
Michelle Krejci – Ann Richards School for Young Women Leaders
Jamie Lagarde – Overwatch Systems
Marion Martin – YMCA of Austin Inc.
Michael McGill – Freescale Semiconductor
Linda Medina – Greater Austin Hispanic Chamber of Commerce
Craig Moore – Travis County District Attorney’s Office
Brandy Mueller – The Mueller Law Office
Andrea Ogilvie – The University of Texas at Austin
Patricia Paredes – Texas Campus Compact
Tina Prentice – St. David’s Community Health Foundation
Diane Rhodes – Texas Dental Association
Pilar Sanchez – Housing Authority of the City of Austin
Carolyn Schwarz – Health Alliance for Austin Musicians
Paul Scott – Equality Texas
Emily Shaw – I&O Communications
Kevin Smothers – pulse
D’Andra Ulmer – grand beginnings, Inc
Alex Valdes – Winstead PC
Arthur Vargas – Austin Community College
Madge Vasquez – Wachovia Bank
Amy Welborn – Kelly Hart & Hallman LLP
Matt Williamson – The Beck Group
Pat Wilson – First Marathon Financial

(Community Matters) Not tons of new polls in yet today but those I am seeing show McCain’s convention bounce waining and Obama regaining ground.