Daily Archives: 09/20/2008

Financial Meltdown

(Community Matters) Pardon the copy & paste but my response in another blog’s comment trail to questions about the advisability of free markets and discerning the pursuit vs worship of money . . . .

Big Picture, I’m reminded of a favorite line of Steven Tomlinson’s in his sermons about money, “how would you know if money became your God?” fyi: Steven is an economist with a Stanford PhD as well as a theologian (in addition, my husband).

Anyhow, to your question, Bobster. Yes, I know, I’m not a “conservative,” though fiscally I’m closer to a conservative than to a liberal.

While grossly imperfect, free markets are vastly superior to other economic systems. And, because of their imperfections, government must regulate. We must especially regulate against externalities, i.e., the secondary or unintended consequences, the costs of which owners are able to shift to society or other sources.

There’s plenty of blame to go around in the current financial meltdown – even if we assume good intentions such as promoting home ownership, financial innovation to leverage available liquidity and well-intentioned but ill-advised subprime lending. Then of course, the not so well intended market realities of greed which leads to short term gains at the long term expense, allowing for recklessness, misleading financial reporting & fat bonuses even in the face of forecasted consequences. Warren Buffett called these (derivatives) investment time bombs as long ago as 2003.

No one really knows the leverage (the full dollar amount of exposure) that exists. Credit Default Swaps, a financial derivative, are thought to total somewhere between $40 to $65 TRILLION. My good friend Jack asked how do CDSs leverage at such multiples, hell if I know. I can’t find a good explanation – if you have one, please send.

Plenty of blame to go around. And, yet – and here is where my political bias might trip others up – the philosophy of unencumbered markets and less regulation as good has just failed us. No doubt regulations get out of control, stifling innovation and productivity. However, blinded bias against regulation has resulted in the meltdown we’re experiencing today.

John Thornton in his blog Insomniactive has written extensively about the Federal Housing Finance Administration, led by James Lockhart, which was responsible for oversight of Freddie and Fannie.

Ill written essays and articles which claim the meltdown is completely from within the well-regulated side of the financial industry are either disingenuous or intentionally misleading. Mr. Lockhart spent lavishly but his agency failed in their oversight, apparently not even heeding auditor warnings and questions, certainly not employing even standard practice to monitor, regulate and quantify risk. In fact, the agency reflected the philosophy of administration principals: dismantle regulation and deploy cronyism. As John notes, Mr. Lockhart is another Michael Brown, the FHFA another FEMA. Thankfully this catastrophe not as costly as Katrina in human lives, though many times more costly financially.

Seems there is an opportunity to cover much of the bailout cost (if not even make gains) if we appropriately discount the securities before purchasing and take options to capture a true fair share of the gains in values of the companies putting these securities to taxpayers. Let’s hope our government negotiates such, though my forecast is Wall Street and other financiers will wait the appropriate time before convincing the government to sale the distressed securities for private workout and most gains will accrue to those bailed out.


The Race Card

(Community Matters) Perhaps I’ll be nicer in my posting than originally planned. Can’t believe the blatant racism being thrown in the race by Republicans. Though, then again I can. First, the ad. Then, what I wrote earlier this morning.

Well, here comes another hail mary from John McCain, the intimidating race baiting advertisement. I suppose in hindsight we knew it was coming – disappointing nonetheless. Frank Raines, an African American former head of Fannie Mae, is shown along side Barack Obama, then an elderly white woman is shown. The message is way too clear, two African American men threatening an elderly white woman. Frank Raines has nothing to do with the campaign. He was chosen because it’s another black male image. If they wanted to pick someone from Fannie Mae, it’s previous-to-Frank-CEO, Jim Johnson, who was on Barack’s vp vetting team until resigning would have been a logical choice. Problem is, Jim is white.

It’s a little scary. Begs the question, will America elect a black president. But, you know what? It’s f$%#ing time to ask the question and to get an affirmative answer. And f$%k the assholes who dare to interject racial prejudice into the election. 

#1 May they go to hell 

#2 I don’t believe very many people who might have voted for Barack will be intimidated by racial prejudice and the latest Willie Horton ad.

Kayla Shell & Randi Shade

(Community Matters) Reports from Council member Randi that Kayla is recovering well and transferred from ICU to a regular hospital room. They remain in our prayers.

Starbuck’s 38th St

(Community Matters) I have such affection for my young friends at my Starbucks. Last night, Steven, Michael, Robert and I stopped by to hear two of the baristas play in their band. Regrettably we arrived before the were really going but we did hear Clark McKay sing and play. James Marshall (a drummer composer and my usual 5:30 am barista) and Andrew Fonte Not had not yet joined Clark. I’m looking forward to their next gig.

the four of us were headed to Korean Garden for dinner. Don’t tell Steven but it was really good!

test

(Community Matters) test, hmm. is this for real? I’ve been unable to post since 3am.

McCain’s youTube

(Community Matters) You really want to watch

that I recall, the only comparable contradiction for Obama would be his promise to opt into public financing for the general campaign. What most don’t understand (b/c it doesn’t fit in a sound bite) is he did offer to do so if McCain would include limits for the RNC and we’d include limits for the DNC. Historically, Democrats have been significantly outspent as Republicans continued to raise and spend out of the RNC.

Polling, Updated

(Community Matters) On Tuesday, I posted a summary of my review of the polls for 10 battle ground states.  My information was 90% from RCL and 538


I noted that Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Missouri had been mostly flat for 8 to 10 days and gave the average margin.
Tuesday Today
Ohio       McCain + 3   Obama +1/toss up
Michigan      Obama + 2            Obama + 4
Wisconsin      Obama + 5            Obama + 5
New Hampshire      Obama + 3    Obama + 3
Missouri      McCain + 15    McCain + 4
Exceptions to the flat line and their margins then and today:
Virginia        lean McCain             toss up
Florida        McCain + 6          McCain + 2/lean GOP
Colorado lean McCain/toss up       lean Dem/toss up
New Mexico            toss up         Obama +6/lean Dem
Nevada lean McCain   toss up
Complacency is not our friend so D’s need to not get cocky but get working even harder.  Volunteer.  Travel to a battleground state.  Give money here.


Roundabout Theatre Company

(Community Matters) Oh man, I’ve been thinking about NYC because ST was suppose to fly there yesterday, and Kirk & Amy are going on Monday. Amy’s invited me to hang with her a few extra days, alas – rats – really busy week next week.  And, now today receive notice of Roundabout’s season and it looks very good, including their current hit, A Man For All Seasons.  full season here 

KUT

(Community Matters) Super duper lunch at KUT.  Station manager Stewart Vanderwilt was nice enough to include me and Steven in a luncheon with David Candow, who they call the host whisperer.  ST couldn’t join us so Margaret Keys joined in his place.  Elizabeth Christian, Rodney Gibbs, Jack Martin, Chris Mareh, Mary Gordan Spence, Pete Schenklan and Ruth Penebaker in addition to staff members including Stewart, Emily Donahue and Valerie Phillips.  

Mr. Candow is an expert in communicating and story telling.  He helps people find their voice. Emphasized the importance of showing in your stories and with your voice, rather than telling.  “The adjective of speech is the verb.  You tell them what she does and the listener can tell you who she is.”  
“Touch their hearts then what you say will be inscribed on their brains.”  “Don’t tell me the moon is shining; show me its shimmer on the broken glass shard on the street.”  I’m not doing David justice.  Maybe I’ll come back and practice what he preached 🙂